links for 2008-01-01

links for 2007-12-28

My Life as a Pundit

I was having lunch in midtown with my friend Jon(n) a few weeks ago when we started joking about how I’d make an excellent TV prognosticator/pundit. It’s my dream job, really; just set me in front of a camera and I’ll give you an opinion on just about anything you throw at me.
So Jonn threw out “the economy” and asked me for my 2008 outlook. I said that January would bring a downturn in the market as retail sales numbers disappointed investors, especially because they were employing steep discounts before the holiday to draw consumers into stores. Combined with the prospect of further downturns in the housing market resulting from upcoming rate adjustments on ARMs, it seems to me that the economy will be unstable for the next year (at least). It turns out I wasn’t far off the mark so far, though of course I couldn’t have predicted the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. As a news junkie and someone who follows world affairs on an hourly basis, that has pretty much shaped my day so far. The Times is running a photo of her at this morning’s rally; I presume it’s just moments before her death.